On
March 30, 1971, in Seattle, Washington, three friends—Jerry Baldwin (an English
teacher), Zev Siegl (a history teacher), and Gordon Bowker (a writer)—opened
the first Starbucks at 2000 Western Avenue. Inspired by the coffee roaster
Alfred Peet, whom they knew personally, they sold only high-quality coffee
beans and equipment, leaving the coffee untouched. Relocating to 1912 Pike
Place in 1976 maintained that simple spirit. But then the winds of change blew:
in 1984, they acquired Peet's Coffee, starting to sell ready-to-drink coffee.
By 1986, six Seattle stores had begun serving espresso. Finally, in 1987,
Howard Schultz bought the company, transforming it into a global ritual—a cozy
cafe with plush couches, free Wi-Fi, soft music, and Instagram-worthy latte
art. Starbucks was no longer just coffee; it had become a lifestyle symbol, a
global social hub with thousands of outlets in every corner of the city.
The Arrival of Newcomer Luckin Coffee
Then
came “Luckin Coffee” in October 2017, like a bolt from the blue. Founded in
China, Luckin didn’t care about romance. They targeted true coffee lovers—busy
office workers, college students, anyone needing a quick caffeine fix,
anywhere. Small “pickup” shops in office buildings or campuses, no fancy
seating, no artsy decor. Order via app, pick up, or have it delivered—simple,
to the point. Just the good coffee you love, at affordable prices. Amazingly,
in January 2018, the first stores in Beijing and Shanghai exploded: 1,300
outlets, surpassing Costa Coffee to become number two in China. By January
2020, there were 4,507 stores—surpassing Starbucks in their home market.
The
world of business, especially coffee, is shifting drastically. The pandemic has
accelerated digitalization: consumers no longer crave a Starbucks-style “third
place,” but efficiency. Luckin dominates an agile supply chain—local roasting,
integrated apps, instant delivery—supported by a giant Chinese network (super
apps like WeChat). Starbucks, a global giant with brand power and a premium
bean supply, is forced to adapt: adding drive-thru, pickup, and delivery.
Lifestyles are shifting toward practical tastes; Gen Z and urban millennials
choose functional coffee, not pose. Luckin is proof: in the hyper-connected
era, the coffee business excels through speed, accessibility, and price—no
longer about style. Starbucks has finally admitted: coffee is now essentially
about caffeine, not stories.
The Drama of Competition to Find True Coffee Drinkers
*
“Outlook:” Luckin Coffee is projected to reach CN¥73.6 billion in revenue and
CN¥6.9 billion in profit by 2028, requiring annual revenue growth of 21.5%.
*
“Number of Stores:”
*
“Q1 2025:” Luckin’s store network expands to over 24,000 locations, making it
China’s largest coffee chain by number of stores. This includes 15,541
self-operated stores and 8,491 partner stores in China, as well as 65
international stores.
*
“Q2 2025:” Luckin has grown to 26,206 stores by July 2025.
*
“Q3 2025:” Adds 3,008 new stores, bringing the total to 29,214. By the end of
June 2025, Luckin’s total store count will reach 26,206, including nearly 9,300
franchise locations.
*
“Customers:” Average monthly customer transactions reached a record high of
112.3 million in Q3 2025.
*
“International Expansion:” Luckin opened its first two US stores on June 30,
2025, in New York City, followed by a third and fourth in less than two months.
Five stores in New York opened by July 2025.
“Starbucks
in 2025:”
*
“Revenue:”
*
“Q4 FY25 (ending September 2025):” Global consolidated revenue increased 5%
year-over-year to US$9.6 billion. Revenue in China reached US$830 million, up
6% from the previous year, marking four consecutive quarters of positive
growth.
*
“Full Fiscal Year 2025:” Overall revenue grew 3% to US$37.2 billion. Revenue in
China grew 5% to US$3.1 billion.
* “Comparable Store Sales”
*
“Q4 FY25:” Global comparable store sales increased 1%, driven by a 1% increase
in comparable transactions. In China, comparable store sales grew 2% in Q4
FY25.
*
“Number of Stores in China:”
*
By mid-2025, Starbucks had approximately 7,000 stores in mainland China.
*
By Q4 FY25, its total store portfolio in China surpassed 8,000 locations.
*
Starbucks has over 7,500 stores in China.
*
“Strategy Shift in China:” Starbucks has agreed to form a joint venture with
Boyu Capital to operate its retail operations in China. The joint venture will
own and operate 8,000 existing Starbucks coffee shops with a vision to expand
to 20,000 locations in the future. The majority stake sale to Boyu Capital is
valued at approximately $4 billion.
*
“China Market Share:” Starbucks’ market share in China has declined from 34% in
2019 to 14% in 2024, highlighting pressure from local competitors like Luckin.
Actual Competitive Comparison and
Trends
*
“Store Count:” Luckin Coffee significantly surpasses Starbucks in the number of
stores in China by 2025, with nearly 30,000 stores compared to Starbucks’
approximately 8,000.
*
“Revenue:” Despite Luckin’s larger store count and rapid revenue growth, Starbucks’
global revenue remains significantly higher. Luckin reported $1.72 billion in
revenue in Q2 2025, while Starbucks reported $8.8 billion in quarterly revenue.
*
“Market Focus:” Luckin continues to focus on its app-based model, fast pickup,
and competitive pricing, which resonate well with young urban consumers in
China. Starbucks has responded with a “Back to Starbucks” strategy focused on
store renovations, digital engagement, and price adjustments to regain market
share.
*
“Price War:” The Chinese coffee market is experiencing an intense price war,
with Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee offering extremely low prices. Starbucks
will also need to further compromise on product prices to attract consumers in
lower-tier cities.
These
data suggest that Luckin Coffee will maintain its aggressive growth momentum,
particularly in store numbers and revenue in the Chinese market by 2025, and
will even begin expanding into the US market. Meanwhile, Starbucks, while still
a dominant global player with higher revenues, faces significant challenges in
China and will need to adapt quickly through changes to its strategy and
business model.
Resources
[1] [sahmcapital.com](https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/does-luckin-coffees-lkncy-revenue-surge-reveal-a-sustainable-edge-in-chinas-coffee-market-2025-11-25)
[2] [finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luckin-coffee-inc-lkncy-q1-070813904.html)
[3] [chainstoreguide.com](https://www.chainstoreguide.com/offthechain/2025/09/luckin-vs-starbucks-the-coffee-battle-everyones-talking-about/)
[4] [investor.luckincoffee.com](https://investor.luckincoffee.com/news-releases/news-release-details/luckin-coffee-announces-third-quarter-2025-financial-results)[chinadaily.com.cn](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202511/05/WS690aa933a310f215074b9098.html)
[5] [investor.luckincoffee.com](https://investor.luckincoffee.com/news-releases/news-release-details/luckin-coffee-announces-third-quarter-2025-financial-results)
[6] [ceibs.edu](https://www.ceibs.edu/new-papers-columns/27644)[chainstoreguide.com](https://www.chainstoreguide.com/offthechain/2025/09/luckin-vs-starbucks-the-coffee-battle-everyone%E2%80%99s-talking-about/)
[7] [ceibs.edu](https://www.ceibs.edu/new-papers-columns/27644)[chainstoreguide.com](https://www.chainstoreguide.com/offthechain/2025/09/luckin-vs-starbucks-the-coffee-battle-everyone%E2%80%99s-talking-about/)
[8] [yicaiglobal.com](https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/starbucks-is-confident-in-china-growth-plans-to-retain-major-equity-stake)
[9] [yicaiglobal.com](https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/starbucks-is-confident-in-china-growth-plans-to-retain-major-equity-stake)
[10] [about.starbucks.com](https://about.starbucks.com/press/2025/starbucks-reports-q4-full-fiscal-year-2025-results/)[youtube.com](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKJi03N2C-M)
[11] [globalbrandsmagazine.com](https://www.globalbrandsmagazine.com/starbucks-reshapes-its-china-strategy/)
[12] [youtube.com](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKJi03N2C-M)
[13] [chainstoreguide.com](https://www.chainstoreguide.com/offthechain/2025/09/luckin-vs-starbucks-the-coffee-battle-everyone%E2%80%99s-talking-about/)
[14] [about.starbucks.com](https://about.starbucks.com/press/2025/starbucks-and-boyu-announce-joint-venture-for-the-next-chapter-of-growth-in-china/)[nytimes.com](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/03/business/starbucks-china-boyu-capital.html)
[15] [eu.36kr.com](https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3538638945426310)
[16] [chinadaily.com.cn](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202511/05/WS690aa933a310f215074b9098.html)
[17] [foodandwine.com](https://www.foodandwine.com/luckin-coffee-expands-in-us-11796954)
[18] [monexa.ai](https://www.monexa.ai/blog/starbucks-corporation-latest-financial-market-anal-SBUX-2025-07-02)
[19] [eu.36kr.com](https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3538638945426310)
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